Once the safest, most coveted job in America. Working at Google was a dream. Then COVID happened. Then AI. Here's the complete story in data.
Dot-com recovery → Mobile revolution → Cloud computing explosion
• 2000: Programmer salary $61K
• 2010: Software engineer salary $75K-$97K
• 2020: Developer salary hits $114K
• Steady 20-year growth in employment
• Google, Facebook, Amazon hiring thousands
• Software engineering = golden ticket to upper middle class
Remote work + stimulus + digital transformation = hiring frenzy
• Tech companies DOUBLED headcount
• Salaries skyrocketed (FAANG offering $200K+ for new grads)
• 22% projected growth (2020-2030 BLS forecast)
• Remote work normalized
• Every company needed software engineers
• Peak demand: "It's impossible to hire good engineers"
Reality check: overhiring + recession fears + AI threat
• 2022: 93,000 tech workers laid off
• 2023: 263,000 tech workers laid off (PEAK)
• 2024: 151,000 tech workers laid off
• Total 2022-2024: 500,000+ layoffs
Who got hit hardest:
• Google: 12,000 laid off
• Meta: 21,000 laid off (11K + 10K rounds)
• Amazon: 27,000 laid off (10K + 8K + 9K rounds)
• Microsoft: 10,000 laid off
• Twitter: 6,000+ laid off (80% of staff!)
Why:
• Companies overhired 2020-2021
• Interest rates rose → VC funding dried up
• Economic uncertainty
• AI automation threat emerging
• "Year of Efficiency" (Meta)
Paradox: AI threatens jobs while creating massive demand for AI engineers
Current Reality (2024-2025):
• Software developers: 1.7M employed, +15% growth projected
• Computer programmers: 121K employed, -6% decline projected
• Junior roles hardest hit
• AI engineer = hottest job in tech
• Companies still hiring but ONLY for AI roles
Projections to 2030-2034:
• BLS: +15% growth (267,700 new jobs)
• McKinsey: 30% of work hours automated
• WEF: Software skills remain top demand
• Split market: AI specialists vs. everyone else
What this means for you:
• Generic "software engineer" jobs declining
• AI/ML specialist roles exploding
• Senior engineers with niche skills = safe
• Junior engineers with no specialization = struggling
• The middle is disappearing
The software engineering dream job isn't dead—it's just not what it used to be. The 2020-2021 boom was an anomaly, not the new normal.
If you're already in: Specialize in AI/ML or become irreplaceable in your niche. Generic full-stack developers are competing with millions of others and increasingly powerful AI tools.
If you're trying to break in: The junior market is brutal. 300-500 applications for entry-level roles. Bootcamp grads facing 12+ month job searches. Consider whether $60K-80K starting salary (if you get hired) is worth 4 years of CS school or $15K bootcamp.
The harsh truth: Software engineering is still a good career—just not the guaranteed path to $200K it seemed to be in 2021. The correction was real, and AI is making it permanent.
Data Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections (2024-2034), Layoffs.fyi, TrueUp.io, Revelio Labs, Levels.fyi salary data, McKinsey Global Institute, World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.